The Not-So-Secret Sauce: How to Tune Out the Noise and Play the Long Game

Finding Confidence Amid the Noise

It’s easy to feel anxious watching the daily news, with headlines that can often feel like storm clouds gathering on the horizon. When you’re in or near retirement, market volatility can feel especially unsettling.

Despite a constant barrage of worries—from tariffs and economic debates to geopolitical tensions—the markets have continued to find reasons for cautious optimism. In fact, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite both reached record closing highs on the final two trading days of June. This happened even after a sharp selloff in early April pulled the S&P 500 down significantly from its February high. The recovery was driven by factors like a delay in tariffs, a steady economy, and continued momentum in technology.

What I want you to take away from this is not the specific numbers, but the pattern: volatility is normal. The market is constantly processing new information, and its path is rarely a straight line.

A perfect example is how markets react to global events. Dramatic headlines about the conflict between Israel and Iran caused a lot of anxiety, but they had only a limited and short-term effect on stocks and oil. Historically, this is often the case, as geopolitical turmoil has not typically had a significant impact on U.S. markets. Unless a global event is powerful enough to directly affect the U.S. economy—like the OPEC oil embargo that contributed to the 1974 recession—it usually doesn’t cause a lasting downturn in U.S. stocks.

The Not-So-Secret Sauce: Playing the Long Game

This brings us to the single most important concept in your financial strategy: the value of playing the long game. The recent market swing is a perfect reminder that trying to time market volatility is a losing proposition. Your financial strategy is built with the understanding that unforeseen setbacks and unpredictable market downturns will happen along the way.

It may sound like a cliché, but the old adage is true: Time in the market, not timing the market, is the not-so-secret sauce that plays a key role in building wealth. Patience is the quiet strength behind the most meaningful successes, and we can see it in the data.

Let’s look at the numbers, because they tell a powerful story about perspective.

• On any single day since 1928, the odds of the S&P 500 finishing higher are just 53%—barely better than a coin toss.

• When you look at all one-month periods, the probability of the S&P 500 closing higher increases to 63%.

• For one-year periods, the index has risen 75% of the time.

• Over a decade, that figure jumps to an incredible 95%.

While past performance does not ensure future outcomes, the U.S. stock market has a remarkable long-term track record. By remaining patient and disciplined, you allow this powerful positive trend to work for you.

If you have any concerns or would simply like to talk, please contact me. I'm honored and humbled by your trust.